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Romanian employers forecast the most subdued hiring pace since Q1 of 2016

The Q2 of 2018 hiring perspectives are positive, but trend moderately weaker both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year

2018-03-13 13:34:54

Almost 1 in 4 Romanian employers intend to increase the size of their workforce in the April – June 2018 interval, and 7 per cent expect to decrease their payrolls in the same interval, according to the ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey.

However, the seasonally adjusted Net Employment Outlook for Q2/2018 stands at +10 per cent, the weakest in over two years. Perspectives weaken both over Q1/2018, by 5 percentage points, and over Q2/2017, by 8 percentage points.

From a regional standpoint, the strongest hiring perspectives are reported in the Center region, where the Outlook stands at a respectable +17 per cent, weakening however both over the first three months of 2018, and over Q2/2017 by 2, and 7 percentage points, respectively. Hiring intentions weaken in seven of eight regions over the January – March 2018 interval, most notably in the North-West region, where perspectives are 25 percentage points weaker than in Q1/2018, and the Net Employment Outlook stands at a modest +8 per cent. By comparison with Q2/2017, the sharpest drop in confidence is reported by employers in the South-East region, where the Outlook is -1 per cent, 21 percentage points weaker than last year, and 8 percentage points weaker than in Q1/2018. Employers in the South-East region are in fact the country's least optimistic, reporting the only negative regional Outlook for the quarter. On the other hand, employers in the South-West region report the country's second strongest quarterly Outlook, +11 per cent, and expect hiring activity to improve both over Q1/2018 and over Q2/2017. This is the only region nationally in which perspectives are expected to be brighter than in the previous quarter and than last year at this time.

Workforce gains are forecast in eight of the 10 industry sectors analyzed, but perspectives trend weaker than in Q1/2018 in all sectors. The most significant quarter-on-quarter drop is reported in the Transport, Storage and Communications sector, where hiring intentions have weakened by 14 percentage points over the January – March 2018 interval, and the Outlook has slipped into negative territory, at -5 per cent. Also negative, and also weaker than both in Q1/2018 and Q2/2017, are perspectives in the Mining and Quarrying sector, the -6 per cent Outlook reported by employers being the least optimistic nationwide.

Employers in the Manufacturing sector are once again the most optimistic, posting a +25 per cent Net Employment Outlook. However, the Q2/2018 hiring plans in Manufacturing are 11 percentage points weaker than those reported in Q1/2018 and 7 percentage points weaker than those reported in Q2/2017. The most abrupt year-on-year shift in optimism is reported by employers in the Wholesale and Retail trade sector, where the +6 per cent quarterly Net Employment Outlook is 24 percentage points weaker than last year's, and weakens by considerable 10 percentage points also over Q1/2018.

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